Red Sox 20 Questions: Last five
By: Ian Tasso, YawkeyTalkies Staff Writer
With opening day just one week away, we’ve reached the top 5 Red Sox questions for the 2010 season in our top 20 countdown.
5. Do the Red Sox have enough in then middle of the order to win this season? (Eric; Amherst, Mass.)
Yes. They lose a lot of shots over the monster going from Bay to Cameron, and they lose plenty of rockets into left going from Lowell to Beltre. I’ll even go on a limb to say they lose a litte pop with Scutaro in the nine-hole rather than Gonzalez.
But even so, a lot of people forget who really is in this lineup: an MVP, one of the most potent bats in the AL in Kevin Youkilis, the second best hitting catcher in all of baseball (who’s finally here for a full season), and the MLB’s leading base stealer. Not to mention David Ortiz – who, even with last year’s struggles still slammed the American League’s 4th most home runs post-All Star Break with 16.
After all, with the pitching they feature, it’s not like they need a Yankee-style batting order. The days of 10-8, 15-9 wins are most likely behind us. But does this offense have enough pop to win a bunch of 5-2’s, 6-4’s and 7-3’s? Absolutely.
4. Who’s going to be the fifth starter this year: Clay Buchholz or Tim Wakefield? (Chris, Topsfield, Mass.)
Francona has already come out and said Buccholz is a starter – and how could he not be? He might have been the Red Sox most consistent starter down the stretch. Plus, with Wakefield’s injury concerns, you can’t just be shipping Clay up and down to the minors whenever you feel like it – he has too much talent to be used like that.
Francona has also come out and said Wakefield will be a starter as well – and that he will not be putting him in the bullpen. Not to mention the 17-year old veteran is only 18 victories away from Roger Clemens’ record of 193 wins in a Sox uniform. He’s not going to fall short of that as long as he lives – the Red Sox won’t allow it.
So what does this mean? Only one thing – Boston will roll with six starters until something (inevitably) goes wrong. And believe me, it will.
Right now Daisuke Matsuzaka is already battling with injuries, so he may miss a few weeks or so of the season. So they might even just start with five. And by the time he’s at full strength, Wakefield might hurt himself or Beckett might get a blister – believe me, something will go wrong.
Remember last year? Penny, Smoltz, Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Buchholz, Wakefield – we had like an 18-man rotation at the beginning of the season. By the end? Smoltz was gone. Penny was gone. Dice-K was hurt. And Paul Byrd was on the mound.
Stuff happens. It’s a long season. For now though, the Sox should keep everyone up, and spot-start Wake until someone goes down or Dice-K proves again that he’s not as capable as we thought he was. And this time, he doesn’t have the WBC to blame.
3. With Cameron, Beltre and Scutaro now in the lineup instead of guys like Bay and Lowell, how much of a regression are we going to see on the offensive side of the ball? (Dave; Allentown, Penn.)
Make no mistake about it – this is in no way, shape or form the same offense as last season.
Boston loses 30+ home runs with the departure of Jason Bay, and the days of Manny and Papi slamming back-to-backs are long gone. This is a different team with a different lineup and a different style of play.
That being said, this offense isn’t getting nearly the amount of credit as it deserves. They’ve still got plenty of punch at the top, and it’s more than enough to win.
Keep in mind Victor Martinez will be around for a full season (instead of just half), Papi most likely won’t poke just two home runs in April and May, and the trio of Pedroia, Youkilis and Ellsbury hasn’t moved anywhere.
And for me, the big difference this year isn’t just the top of the order – it’s about the bottom, too. And in a good way.
For the better part of last season, Boston’s lineup was rounded out by Jason Varitek, Casey Kotchman and Nick Green, who combined for a .238 average, 27 home runs and 136 RBI.
This year? Adrian Beltre, Mike Cameron and Marco Scutaro –who together posted a .266 average, 54 dingers and 174 runs batted in. I’ll take those last three any day of the week.
2. Which David Ortiz will we see this year? (Ben; Tyngsboro, Mass.)
This might be the most important question of any surrounding Boston this Spring Training.
The fact remains: though this team features some great pitching, a very nicely assembled offense and a tremendous defense backing it all up, the Sox need number 34 to produce if they want to go anywhere this year.
Does he need to slam 50+ home runs like back in 2005? Not even close. Does he need to rake 42 dingers like in ’06? No.
But he does need to supply a hammer that this offense desperately needs. And I fully expect him to.
Last year, his numbers were marred by a dismal spring that saw him hit only one home run in his first two months of baseball. But this year, reports out of Fort Meyers are that he’s fully recovered from that wrist and has showed up a few pounds lighters than last year. And the only thing more preposterous than a one home run Papi in 2009 would be another one in 2010 – it’s just not going to happen.
Over-30 hitters have regressions at the end of their career. It happens. But they just don’t fall off the cliff. Instead, we’re most likely going to see the second half Ortiz – 16 home runs, 52 RBI, .258 avg – for a full season and along a much similar batting average line.
He’s no longer the go-to-guy in this lineup. But he’ll still supply somewhere between 25-35 home runs this year, easily reach 110 RBI (he hit 99 last season), and he’s going to do it all at around a .260 clip.
Will he win an MVP? No. But will he provide some nice pop in the middle of this order? You bet. Plus, the guy’s got a huge chip on his shoulder this year – and an athlete with something to prove is a very dangerous one.
1. Can the upgraded defense win a World Series? (Jess; Orlando, Fla.)
Absolutely. People forget, that’s how they won the World Series in 2004 – with a move to dump a whole lot of offense (Nomar) in favor of a whole lot of defense (Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mienkewitz.)
Granted, back then they still had the hammering duo of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, but they’ve got a whole lot more than just an upgraded defense this season. The trio of Beckett, Lester and Lackey at the front of the rotation in a first-to-four wins playoff series is a terrifying prospect for any opposing team.
To be honest, the fact that some MLB “experts” are predicting that this team might not win 90 games this year is appalling – especially when you consider they’ve topped that number every season except one since Theo took over in 2002. Even last year, when Boston’s team was supposedly ‘nothing compared to other years,’ the Sox won 95 games.
It looks like this season will be like every other, and will take about 80-90 wins to make the playoffs – especially now that the Twins might be without reliever Joe Nathan for a long time. As long as Boston can do that, which they should, they’ll find themselves in the playoffs.
And in a spring that has plenty of questions surrounding the boys in Red, there’s one thing that’s for certain – that three-headed dragon of a starting rotation will make Boston very difficult to get rid of in October.
And that’s all that matters.
REGULAR SEASON PREDICTION:
98-64, AL Wild Card Champions
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