Not this year Pap

By: Evan MacDonald, YawkeyTalkies correspondent

I am a Red Sox fan.

Always have been. Make no bones about it — I’ve seen them through thick and thin since the 1998 season, when I was 10 years old and just beginning to understand sports.

I vividly remember having my dreams crushed after Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS. I can still see myself never losing hope when the Sox fell down, three games to none, during the infamous 2004 series against the New York Yankees.

Like every Boston fanatic, I get overexcited for meaningless early-season accomplishments (see: 8-0 start against the Bombers this year) and overreact when things go awry (see: Jason Bay’s midseason slump, during which I viciously called him a $6 million player).

But beneath it all, I’m rational. I don’t expect too much from flawed teams, and I know my favorite team can’t win every year.

Which is why I didn’t believe for a second that the Red Sox would win the 2009 World Series.

Most of you reading this — the diehard, stand-up-and-scream-the-chorus-of-Sweet-Caroline Sox fans — are probably outraged by that statement. I apologize.

But think deep down, past your fandom. Did you really think the Red Sox were the championship-caliber team they were in the past?

I don’t know exactly what it was, but something was different this year. The pitching was never quite right; beginning with the Dice-K disaster, through the implosion of Jonathan Papelbon at the end of it all, something was off. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester were solid all year (after their respective slow starts, that is), but it ends there. Tim Wakefield and Matsuzaka were injury-plagued. John Smoltz and Brad Penny were low-priced fill-ins that didn’t pan out. The relievers were solid for the most part, but ultimately, entering the postseason with a rookie and a veteran coming off major surgery as your primary set-up men isn’t a good place to be.

And then, of course, there’s Papelbon. We’ve become so accustomed to his being super-human, that this season’s fall back to being simply great was astonishing to many of us. He still put up great numbers; being 38-for-41 in save opportunities is nothing to scoff at. But his walks were up, and he seemed to be relying too heavily on his fastball — which came back to haunt him against the Angels.

Most of all, though, the problem was the offense. Bay, Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, and Dustin Pedroia are great hitters, but are any of them really putting a scare into you in the ninth inning of a tie game? David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, and Jason Varitek can simply be considered “aging” at this point. They all battled injuries and/or declining power numbers this year, and the fact we’re paying them a combined $25 million next season isn’t a good thing. J.D. Drew, despite his incredible ability to annoy the piss out of Boston fans, actually had the second-highest OBP among outfielders in the league this year after Bay. But it sure seemed like he was a shoo-in for either a groundout to second or a caught-looking strikeout in the late innings of tight games.

So if the team wasn’t good enough, where do the Red Sox go from here? What’s the next move?

The pitching staff seems set. Beckett and Lester will be back, Clay Buchholz looks ready to be a legitimate starter, and Matsuzaka will be back healthy. The aging Wakefield should factor as the final starter.

The bullpen, likewise, is alright. Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, and Manny Delcarmen are under contract. Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito may be gone, but they’re replaceable.

The infield and DH are solid: Martinez, Youkilis, Pedroia, Ortiz, and Lowell will be back. Jed Lowrie will get another shot at the shortstop job, and Jason Varitek will probably pick up his $3 million player option.

The outfield has Jacoby Ellsbury and Drew, but Bay will test the free agent waters. His signing is crucial, but somehow I don’t think the Sox will bring him back. They’ll probably offer him about three years and $45 million, but he’s sure to get five years and $80 million somewhere else.

The free agent class is atrocious. Bay and Matt Holliday headline the outfielders, and there’s not much else. Miguel Tejada and old friend Orlando Cabrera are shortstop options, while Magglio Ordonez, Jermaine Dye and Xavier Nady could be outfield options.

Most likely, the Sox’s best options are through trades. Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, or Prince Fielder could probably be had for the right price (read: a lot). Justin Morneau may be available if the Twins are worried about having the money to re-sign Joe Mauer.

Any package for these players would probably center around Papelbon or Bard (whomever they decide isn’t the closer of the future), Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden, and another prospect or two. No one will come cheap; young talent never does.

Do you know what the worst part about all of this is? We wouldn’t be having this discussion if the Red Sox had either A. kept Manny Ramirez, or B. signed Mark Teixeira.

First, the Manny angle. We all love Bay; the guy has been nothing short of the consummate team player since his arrival last August. But the fact of the matter is that he’s no Manny Ramirez. Steroids debate aside, Manny remains one of the most feared hitters in baseball. He was a monster for the Los Angeles Dodgers last postseason, and he produced with a .308 average, three doubles, and a couple of RBIs in their sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS. Boston would never have been limited to a single run on the road this playoffs if Manny was still wearing red stockings.

The loss of Manny could have been assuaged, though, with the signing of Teixeira. Instead, the Sox lost him to the Yankees over a measly $10 million in a 10-year contract. Seeing him hit the game-winning home run for New York in Game 2 against the Minnesota Twins was a harsh reminder of what the Red Sox missed out on.

When the Yankees signed Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett this off-season, Sox ownership said they simply could not keep up with the Yankees’ spending, and that baseball should probably have a salary cap. Unfortunately, there is no such cap in baseball, and teams can spend whatever they want. The Yankees spent the necessary money in order to put a championship-caliber ball club on the field. They should be commended, really. It’s not illegal by baseball standards. Yankees ownership did what they had to do, while the Sox shopped at Filene’s Basement for Smoltz, Penny, and Saito. It’s better to spend $400 million on talent during the off-season than it is to spend $11 million. That’s why the Yankees are still alive, and the Sox aren’t.

That’s why the Yankees are going to be the 2009 World Series champs.

I know, I know. It’s horrible. It’s despicable. I don’t want to see it happen. But deep down, I know it’s going to. I know the Yankees bought themselves a championship.

But you know something? A purchased championship is better than no championship at all.

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